Research Journal
Documenting the evolution of PsychoHAistory — starting with concept notes.
Concept note Concept notes state arguments and plans. They report no experiments, because none has been run yet.
- 01Why Predict the Work?Organizations measure work constantly and predict it badly. That gap is the research question.
- 02From Psychohistory to Predictive EngineeringAsimov imagined predicting civilizations. We are interested in something much smaller, and testable.
- 03Can We Predict an AI Team Before It Starts Working?Agent teams are configured, not hired — which makes them unusually well suited to prediction research.
- 04The Hidden Cost of CoordinationEvery collaborator adds capacity and conversations. The second grows faster.
- 05Why More Agents May Not Mean Faster DeliveryDependencies, coordination and review capacity all cap the benefit of scale.
- 06Understanding Human–AI Work CompatibilityCompatibility is a property of workflows, not of personalities.
- 07What Makes a Prediction Scientifically Useful?Stated in advance, falsifiable, calibrated and scored.
- 08Building an Organizational MemoryPrediction needs history that is complete, consistent and honestly sourced.
- 09From Historical Patterns to Future ScenariosSimulation is a way to ask “what if” with the assumptions written down.
- 10The Challenge of Measuring AI Agent BehaviorBefore predicting agents, we need measurements of them that repeat.